Winning the Oil Endgame ∨

In 2004, Rocky Mountain Institute's Chief Scientist, Chairman and Co-founder Amory Lovins and a team of RMI collaborators accomplished a highly complex and innovative task -- the drafting of a roadmap for the United States to get completely off oil by 2050, led by business for profit.

The result was a thoroughly researched, highly analytical, yet practical book called Winning the Oil Endgame (WTOE). The book is available for free PDF download here.

Following its release, RMI began working with key stakeholders in industry to accelerate key components of the WTOE strategy. To aid its implementation, RMI raised $3.6 million from private donors and foundations.

Since transportation is responsible for around 70 percent of U.S. oil use, the MOVE team has become core to RMI's WTOE implementation efforts.

The finance that was raised allowed MOVE consultants to break into a variety of high-leverage areas in which solutions centering on radical energy efficiency and breakthrough technologies are being used to advance the ideas in WTOE.

WTOE Implementation

WTOE implementation has led to many critical projects, including:

Working with Wal-Mart to increase the company’s new heavy truck model's efficiency by 25 percent at the end of 2008, and setting a goal of doubled efficiency by 2015.
Assisting RMI, a consortium of Google, Alcoa, Johnson Controls and Turner Foundation founded Bright Automotive -- a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) development company.
The funding of multipartisan work on 'Feebate' -- an innovative, revenue-neutral policy instrument that can greatly improve and encourage vehicle efficiency.
Partnering with a major automaker to create a “transformational”, super-efficient vehicle concept which has now entered production development.
Partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and major industry players to host an accelerated Innovation Lab (Case study) focused on catalyzing next generation cellulosic biofuels.
Funding work with the U.S. military, which now demands every future platform it builds account for the true cost of fuel transported to the place of operations. (Did you know the cost to transport a gallon of fuel to theaters of operations can be between $40 and $60?)

The Innovation Dial

While many of these projects involved for-profit clients, philanthropic funding enables RMI to “turn up the innovation dial”.

Where a client may ask to help design or implement an incremental tweak in efficiency, RMI’s hybrid grant/consulting model enables our team to propose and push for breakthrough changes that ultimately bring the biggest mission -- and margin -- value.

WTOE’s successes embody the reason RMI’s hybrid grant/consultant funding model allows us to drive innovation further, faster and deeper in the business world.

The Road Ahead

While WTOE accomplished tremendous efficiency achievements, we still have a long and arduous path ahead.

The United States is still about 60 percent dependent on imported oil.

World oil consumption is still increasing, especially with growth in developing nations like India and China.

We are therefore increasing our efforts and launching Phase II of WTOE implementation.

Phase II Projects

Retaining the best practices from Phase I, MOVE's efforts to implement WTOE in Phase II will have four characteristics:

High-level influence
Entrepreneurial innovation
Company engagements
Public outreach

The areas of focus in Phase II will continue to include the military, the automotive and trucking sectors and next-generation biofuels. MOVE is also more involved with aviation and freight.

In addition, although Winning the Oil Endgame was a book centered on the United States, RMI will expand its reach, especially given that most of the growth in oil consumption comes from developing markets.

We are currently finalizing the translation WTOE in Chinese Mandarin with Tsinghua University and looking at tackling several projects outside the United States.

Below is an outline of our Phase II approach to three key oil-consuming sectors:

Automotive

MOVE is targeting emerging auto markets like India and China, while continuing to improve vehicle efficiency in the United States.

Currently, India and China have the same per capita auto ownership the United States had in 1915.

The Chinese auto industry has quadrupled in size in the past six years -- with rapid growth expected to continue -- and the cars it produces need to be much more efficient.

MOVE’s goal is to encourage Indian and Chinese automakers like Mahindra, Tata and Chery to leapfrog efficiency gains being achieved in more advanced markets. At the same time, it is MOVE’s intention to work with U.S. manufacturers to help them be at the forefront of the technology efficiency competition.

In order to be able to convince these automakers to come on board, though, MOVE needs to undertake significant research and early-stage collaboration efforts that utilize philanthropic contributions.

Trucking

As our experience with Wal-Mart showed, trucks with integrated design have the potential to radically improve fuel efficiency.

The MOVE team is looking specifically at trailers, which create much of the aerodynamic drag associated with large vehicles.

MOVE’s goal is to get 6 mile per gallon (mpg) trucks to 12–14 mpg, which is roughly the fuel efficiency of Chevrolet’s Suburban SUV -- not bad for vehicles that regularly carry 50,000 to 70,000 pounds!

Aviation

Carbon dioxide emissions from aviation account for only two to three percent of total CO2 emissions. However, this is increasing rapidly and, according to the IATA, is predicted to hit five percent of total emissions by 2050.

At the same time, planes could feasibly be two to three times more efficient.

MOVE will use part of the philanthropic funding to add senior aviation specialists who will conduct in-depth research as well as lead consulting engagements with both plane manufacturers and airlines.

If you are interested in accelerating Winning the Oil Endgame or hearing about our plans for other industries, please contact developers@rmi.org